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時間:2022-08-16 來源:本站 點擊:258次

双语热点:从火星、月球到元宇宙 马斯克打造的“科幻世界”******


Elon Musk Is Building a Sci-Fi World, and the Rest of Us Are Trapped in It

The last week of October, Bill Gates (net worth: $138 billion) celebrated his 66th birthday in a cove off the coast of Turkey, ferrying guests from his rented yacht to a beach resort by private helicopter. Guests, according to local reports, included Jeff Bezos (net worth: $197 billion), who after the party flew back to his own yacht, not to be confused with the “superyacht” he is building at a cost of more than $500 million.


The world’s richest person, Elon Musk (net worth: $317 billion), did not attend. He was most likely in Texas, where his company SpaceX was preparing for a rocket launch. Mark Zuckerberg (net worth: $119 billion) wasn’t there, either, but the day after Mr. Gates’s party, he announced his plan for the metaverse, a virtual reality where, wearing a headset and gear that closes out the actual world, you can spend your day as an avatar doing things like going to parties on remote Aegean islands or boarding a yacht or flying in a rocket, as if you were obscenely rich.


The metaverse is at once an illustration of and a distraction from a broader and more troubling turn in the history of capitalism. The world’s techno-billionaires are forging a new kind of capitalism: Muskism. Mr. Musk, who likes to troll his rivals, mocked Mr. Zuckerberg’s metaverse. But from missions to Mars and the moon to the metaverse, it’s all Muskism: extreme, extraterrestrial capitalism, where stock prices are driven less by earnings than by fantasies from science fiction.


Metaverse, the term, comes from a 1992 science fiction novel by Neal Stephenson, but the idea is much older. There’s a version of it, the holodeck, in the “Star Trek” franchise, which Mr. Bezos was obsessed with as a kid; last month, he sent William Shatner, the actor who played Captain Kirk in the original series, into space. Billionaires, having read stories of world-building as boys, are now rich enough, as men, to build worlds. The rest of us are trapped in them.

“元宇宙”这个词来自尼尔·史蒂芬森1992年的科幻小说,但是这个概念早已存在。在贝佐斯儿时迷恋的《星际迷航》(Star Trek)系列里的全像甲板就是它的一个版本;上个月,他把该系列中饰演柯克船长的演员威廉·夏特纳送入太空。亿万富翁们小时候读过那些建造世界的故事,现在长大成人的他们已经足够富有,于是就成了建造世界的人。其他人则被困在这些世界里。

Weirdly, Muskism, an extravagant form of capitalism, is inspired by stories that indict … capitalism. At Amazon Studios, Mr. Bezos tried to make a TV adaptation of the Culture space opera series, by the Scottish writer Iain Banks (“a huge personal favorite”); Mr. Zuckerberg put a volume of it on a list of books he thinks everyone should read; and Mr. Musk once tweeted, “If you must know, I am a utopian anarchist of the kind best described by Iain Banks.”


Admittedly, it’s possible these men’s sci-fi fandom is so much tech-bro-PR blather, but these are very smart people and you do get the sense they’ve actually read these books. (Mr. Gates, a philanthropist, isn’t much involved in all this. “I’m not a Mars person,” he said last winter. He read a lot of science fiction as a kid but has mostly left it behind, and, full disclosure, he once put a book of mine on a list of gift books for the holidays, so I’m in no position to question the man’s taste.) Muskism, it seems, involves misreading.


Muskism has origins in Silicon Valley of the 1990s, when Mr. Musk dropped out of a Ph.D. program at Stanford to start his first company and then his second, X.com. As the gap between the rich and the poor grew wider and wider, the claims of Silicon Valley start-ups became more and more grandiose. Google opened an R&D division called X, whose aim is “to solve some of the world’s hardest problems.”


Tech companies started talking about their mission, and their mission was always magnificently inflated: transforming the future of work, connecting all of humanity, making the world a better place, saving the entire planet. Muskism is a capitalism in which companies worry — very publicly, and quite feverishly — about all manner of world-ending disasters, about the all-too-real catastrophe of climate change, but more often about mysterious “existential risks,” or x-risks, including the extinction of humanity, from which only techno-billionaires, apparently, can save us.


But Muskism has earlier origins, too, including in Mr. Musk’s own biography. Much of Muskism is descended from the technocracy movement that flourished in North America in the 1930s and that had as a leader Mr. Musk’s grandfather Joshua N. Haldeman. Like Muskism, technocracy took its inspiration from science fiction and rested on the conviction that technology and engineering can solve all political, social and economic problems. Technocrats, as they called themselves, didn’t trust democracy or politicians, capitalism or currency. Also, they objected to personal names: One technocrat was introduced at a rally as “1x1809x56.” Elon Musk’s youngest son is named X Æ A-12.

但马斯克主义也有更早的起源,包括在马斯克自己的传记里。马斯克主义在很大程度上源自1930年代在北美盛行的技术官僚运动,马斯克的外祖父约书亚·N·霍尔德曼曾是该运动的领袖。与马斯克主义一样,技术官僚主义也从科幻小说中获得灵感,并建立在这样一种信念之上:技术和工程可以解决所有的政治、社会和经济问题。他们自称技术官僚,不相信民主或政治家、资本主义或货币。此外,他们还反对使用个人姓名:一名技术官僚在一次集会上被介绍为“1x1809x56”。伊隆·马斯克的小儿子名叫X Æ A-12。

As a teenager, he read Douglas Adams’s “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”; he plans to name the first SpaceX rocket to Mars after the crucial spaceship in the story, the Heart of Gold.

十几岁时,他读了道格拉斯·亚当斯的《银河系漫游指南》(The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy)。他打算以故事中至关重要的宇宙飞船“黄金之心”为SpaceX的第一枚火星火箭命名。

“Hitchhiker’s Guide” doesn’t have a metaverse, but it does have a planet called Magrathea, whose inhabitants build an enormous computer to ask it a question about “life, the universe and everything.” After millions of years, it answers, “Forty-two.” Mr. Musk says that the book taught him that “if you can properly phrase the question, then the answer is the easy part.”


Adams wrote “Hitchhiker’s Guide” in 1977. It takes particular aim at the mega-rich, with their privately owned rockets, establishing colonies on other planets. “For these extremely rich merchants, life eventually became rather dull, and it seemed that none of the worlds they settled on was entirely satisfactory,” the narrator says. “Either the climate wasn’t quite right in the later part of the afternoon or the day was half an hour too long or the sea was just the wrong shade of pink. And thus were created the conditions for a staggering new form of industry: custom-made, luxury planet building.”


This would appear to be exactly what Mr. Bezos and Mr. Musk are up to, with their plans for the moon and Mars, annexing the planets if they could.


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5 亿用户 4000 万日订单,要上市的滴滴依然不赚钱******摘要


成立 9 年,融资 21 轮,IPO 被传了上百次,滴滴提交招股书时,没有太多人会感到意外。

6 月 11 日消息,滴滴正式向 SEC 递交了 IPO 招股书,股票代码为「DIDI」,高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。

滴滴这家庞大的出行公司,也第一次对外展现出了它的内部核心数据。2019 年开始,滴滴在中国的网约车业务已经开始赚到了钱,但严格意义上来讲,滴滴这家公司从成立到现在,还没有实现全面盈利。


近 5 亿用户、日均订单 4100 万

截至 2021 年 3 月,滴滴在包括中国在内的 15 个国家约 4000 多个城镇开展业务,提供网约车、出租车、顺风车、共享单车、共享电单车、代驾、车服、货运、金融和自动驾驶等服务。

公司在 2018 年、2019 年和 2020 年的营收分别为 1353 亿元人民币、1548 亿元人民币和 1417 亿元人民币;在截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的三个月,公司营收为 422 亿元人民币。

在截至 2021 年 3 月 31 日的 12 个月里,滴滴全球年活跃用户为 4.93 亿,全球年活跃司机 1500 万。其中,在中国拥有 3.77 亿年活跃用户和 1300 万年活跃司机。

2021 年第一季度,滴滴中国出行业务拥有 1.56 亿月活用户,日均交易量为 2500 万次。从单量和交易额来看,过去一年滴滴全球业务的平均日交易量为 4100 万单,全平台总交易额为 3410 亿元人民币。

滴滴还宣称,在过去 3 年内,平台司机总收入约 6000 亿元人民币。

距离滴滴创始人程维提出的「0188」目标过去一年时间,日订单 1 亿完成了接近一半,其他数据则没有完整公布,全球月活用户超 8 亿的目标似乎还有不小的差距。

滴滴出行招股书核心数据 | 美国证券交易委员会

主要股东的持股信息方面,软银愿景基金持有逾 2.42 亿股普通股,持股比例为 21.5%;Uber 持有近 1.44 亿股普通股,持股比例为 12.8%;腾讯持有逾 7700 万股普通股,持股比例为 6.8%。而创始人程维作为最大的个人股东,持有滴滴 7% 的股权,联合创始人、总裁柳青持股 1.7%。

不过无需担心滴滴会被股东控制操纵,根据中概股常规的同股不同权的安排,程维、柳青合计拥有超过 48% 的投票权,包括程维、柳青在内的滴滴管理层拥有超过 50% 的投票权。同股不同权即 AB 股的模式已经被京东、小米、拼多多等多家互联网公司应用。在滴滴上市之后,董事会成员之一、软银集团资本管理部门负责人 Kentaro Matsui 也将辞任,说明持股比例最高的软银在滴滴上市时退出董事会。


滴滴计划将约 30% 的募资金额用于扩大中国以外国际市场的业务;约 30% 的募资金额用于提升包括共享出行、电动汽车和自动驾驶在内的技术能力;约 20% 用于推出新产品和拓展现有产品品类以持续提升用户体验;剩余部分可能用于营运资金需求和潜在的战略投资等。


自 2020 年以来,滴滴以出行为基准,围绕其布局了多项业务。在招股书内,滴滴将其统一分类为三项:中国出行业务、国际业务和其他业务。中国出行业务包括网约车、出租车、代驾与顺风车等;国际业务包括出行与外卖服务;其他业务则包含共享单车和电单车、车服、货运、自动驾驶和金融服务等业务。

其中中国出行业务无疑是滴滴旗下最重要的版块。在滴滴 2018 年至 2021 年第一季度的平台收入中,网约车收入占中国出行业务的 97% 以上。2020 年下半年,中国出行业务的交易总额为 1216 亿元人民币,比上半年增长 80.3%,比 2019 年同期的六个月增长 12.2%。

滴滴出行营收数据 | 美国证券交易委员会


滴滴在中国出行业务已经形成了一定规模,证明了自己盈利的能力。从招股书上来看,2019 年开始,滴滴就已实现规模化盈利。但从盈利规模上来看,实在不能算高。

以 2020 年为例,中国出行业务的全年 GTV(平台总交易额)1890 亿人民币中,其中网约车服务交易额为 1486 亿,消费者补贴 163 亿元,算出平台营收为 1336 亿元。刨去司机收入 1105 亿、对司机的 69 亿元补贴,以及平台的成本费用,最终的经调整 EBITA(息税折旧摊销前利润)为 40 亿元。2020 全年中国网约车业务的调整后 EBITA 为 3.1%。

举个不太恰当的对比案例,滴滴在 2018 年的研发费用就达到 44 亿元,两年后的网约车业务利润尚不到此量级。可见网约车平台的生意并不是那么好做。

如果和同样是平台型企业的美团来对比,滴滴网约车业务和美团外卖是比较类似的——强调规模,抽佣是盈利的主要方式,切入的是巨大市场,同样也需要深耕运营。根据美团 2020 全年财报,美团外卖业务贡献了 8.82 亿元的经营利润,经营利润率为 4.1%,和滴滴网约车业务相差并不大。

但美团的一部分优势在于,到店与酒旅业务是这家公司的「现金牛」,该业务在 2021 年第一季度的经营利润率达到了 42%,在一定程度上,到店与酒旅业务给了美团投资人比较强的信心,财报上也不会显得太难看。


和人们想象中不同的是,滴滴并不是一家非常赚钱的公司,甚至未来一段时间内,因为对单车、自动驾驶等各项新业务的投入,都可能会持续亏损。从招股书中可以看到,公司在 2018 年、2019 年和 2020 年的净亏损分别为 150 亿元人民币、97 亿元人民币和 106 亿元人民币。


出行市场的潜力巨大 | 美国证券交易委员会

根据滴滴在招股书中的测算,2020 年全球出行市场规模为 6.7 万亿美元(约合人民币 42.8 万亿元),但共享出行和电动汽车在全球的渗透率分别为 2% 和 1%。滴滴出行总裁柳青也曾经公开表示,对比电子商务在中国 26% 的渗透率,中国的出行市场还有很大的潜力可以挖掘。




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